27 agosto 2012

Cambio a Cuba: dopo Raul chi sarà il successore dei Castro?


Le incerte condizioni di salute di Fidel, l’età avanzata dello stesso Raul e la sua decisione di limitare a due mandati di 5 anni la presidenza del governo cubano, rendono questa domanda d’obbligo.

Un’inchiesta tra 18 persone, ben informate per aver accesso a internet e alle informazioni dall’estero tramite parabola, considerano che se la vita sull’isola continua con il cammino presente il successore alla guida del paese lo nominerà lo stesso Raul.

Chi potrebbe essere?
Sette di loro credono che un candidato potrebbe essere Alejandro Castro, coordinatore dei servizi segreti, unico figlio di Raul, è giovane e continuerebbe la dinastia. 
Quattro vedono qualcuno della vecchia guardia raulista, tipo Leopoldo Diaz Frias, ministro delle Forze Armate. 
Due pensano che a Cuba in futuro governerà una giunta militare. 
Infine cinque considerano che Mariela Castro Lazaro Esposito, Marino Murillo, Luis Alberto Lopez-Callejas o Miguel Diaz Canel potrebbero essere tra i candidati, visto i loro legami famigliari o le affinità politiche con Raul Castro.

Quale potrebbe essere il progetto politico?
Difficile da prevedere. Per nove di loro il successore opterebbe per un’economia di mercato e un governo forte, con figure che si alternano alla guida.

Poterebbe esse disegnato un governo sul tipo di quello russo. 
Se gli Stati Uniti fossero disposti a negoziare, dialogare e accettassero qualunque successore a Raul, giustificandosi con ragioni come l’emigrazione illegale, il terrorismo, la lotta alla droga, potrebbero accettare un governo autoritario, senza dare molta importanza alle libertà individuali, basta che garantisca però le sue frontiere. 
Sarebbe per loro preferibile ad una democrazia debole e corrotta, che convertirebbe s’isola in una grande zattera o un terreno fertile per il narcotraffico internazionale.

Gli intervistati credono che chiunque sia il successore abbandonerebbe la linea da guerra fredda di Fidel. 
Pensano che gli Stati Uniti non potrebbero tollerare una versione “Castro light” e  in quel caso continuerebbero a pronunciarsi per una democrazia reale con la partecipazione di tutti gli attori politici.

E quale potrebbe essere un leader dell’opposizione disposto a governare?
Alcuni credono che Oswaldo Payà sarebbe stato un possibile candidato, ma dopo la sua scomparsa pensano a Oscar Elias Biscet. 
Altri accennano a Manuel Cuesta Morua, con una maggiore esperienza e un buon curriculum.

Anche se sconosciuta alla popolazione uno di loro ha segnalato Yoani Sanchez, che però già nel 2009 non si considerava né all’opposizione né una dissidente e che non prevedeva un suo ruolo politico, perché la politica la “ripugnava”.

Tutti e 18 gli intervistati comunque sono convinti che l’opposizione deve consolidare e tracciare un percorso politico plausibile, concreto e coerente.
Il futuro presidente potrebbe anche essere un cittadino comune che in un determinato momento potrebbe balzare alla ribalta improvvisamente.
Oppure un esiliato politico con buoni agganci negli Stati Uniti e nel mondo della finanza. Qualcuno cresciuto in un sistema democratico e trasparente.
Chiunque sia la variante di una Cuba dopo i Castro tutti concordano che i cubani in esilio assumerebbero un ruolo fondamentale nella transizione.

fonte Desde la Habana

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nuovacuba ha detto...

Sai chi sarà il successore di castro?
Un generale.
Che sicuramente gli USA stanno già contattando per tenere "calma" Cuba dopo la morte di uno o di tutti e due i Castro.

E questo temo sia uno dei regali del castrismo. per invidia NON hanno fatto crescere nessuna grande personalità politica... e pagheranno lo scotto temo.

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E' una possibilità. Io spero che una transizione graduale possa evitare questa ipotesi. Evitare l'anarchia che regna negli ex paesi sovietici dovrebbe essere di primaria importanza. Evitare la replica del "modello" americano è altrettanto fondamentale. Noi (Italia, Europa,USA, in generale i "paesi ricchi") siamo l'esempio del fallimento del capitalismo estremo. Voglio credere che un paese come Cuba "vergine" in un certo senso da contaminazioni globali, possa svilupparsi con principi più umani e socialmente evoluti.

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roberto parlare di fallimento del capitalismo è intellettualmente coraggiosa come ipotesi. la stessa Cina che sta facendo grandi passi in avanti e a cui Cuba si ispira... ha inventato il "socialismo capitalista".

Se c'è qualcosa che è fallito totalmente è il socialismo economico di Cuba

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Perché la crisi socio-economica che sta distruggendo tutti i paesi occidentali la chiami successo?
La Cina sta adottando una forma di capitalismo nuova, con alcune lacune, ma comunque con una autonomia invidiabile. Ti ricordo che in 30 anni in Cina 500.000.000 di persone sono uscite dalla povertà assoluta.
E' un tentativo... Il socialismo così come è stato applicato sino ad oggi è certamente fallito. Ma i principi socialisti sono attuali più che mai. Basta cercare di applicarli con una visione moderna mirata ad un futuro umanamente sostenibile.

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Il socialismo resta, ma con la liberta della liberta impresa. No liberta di espssione. Ma almeno libera impresa.
Cuba non è la cina. I cubani sono più ocvidentali e meritano il diritto di libera espressione

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